Sales Remain Strong as the Spring Season Begins To Wind Down
As we’ll learn from the bar graph below, demand for NYC residential real estate is still well above the pre-pandemic average* but appears to be winding down after peaking during the last week of March.
It will be interesting to watch how the market performs as summer approaches. Typically, buyer activity is slow as academic vacations take precedence over home shopping. As such, we would expect the demand curve to trend below its long-term average (as it did during December 2022 and January 2023). Any numbers in line with or above that historical benchmark will be considered a win.
Please stay tuned.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
* the period from January 5, 2015, to March 1, 2020
Manhattan Supply
The chart below serves as an almanac, and this year is shaping up just like years past. This week, supply increased from 7,143 to 7,273 units, and that number should continue to increase en route to the June peak.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn Supply
Exhibits a bi-annual cycle, though it’s not as apparent without Manhattan’s depth of historical data to clearly illustrate the trend. This week, supply increased from 3,154 to 3,219 units, and that number should continue to increase as we head toward the June peak.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Manhattan Pending Sales
Like the supply “almanac,” the historical pending sales chart gives us a clear picture of what to expect. Any deviation from the large peak in June and the smaller peak in December would certainly qualify as “news” and be reported. As expected, the metric increased week over week from 2,896 to 2,932 units.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn Pending Sales
This week’s observation is the same as what we witnessed in Manhattan where, right on cue, the metric reached its seasonal February trough and then reversed direction. We can also predict that the first of two peaks this year should occur in June and that the metric is about halfway there. Pending sales increased marginally from 1,801 to 1,802 units this week.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Manhattan Contracts Signed
As the spring sales season begins to wind down, the metric appears to be returning to its pre-pandemic benchmark (the average weekly number of signed contracts from January 5, 2015, to March 1, 2020). This week, 208 contracts were signed.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn Contracts Signed
Brooklyn continues to peak since the pandemic. After briefly touching the pre-pandemic average (the average weekly number of signed contracts from Jan 5, 2015, to Mar 1, 2020) in mid-January, which has become the metric’s support level for more than two years, signed contracts have skyrocketed above that average. This week, 161 contracts were signed.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
New Development Insights
As reported by Marketproof, this week, 52 new development contracts were reported across 40 buildings. The following were the top-selling new developments of the week:
- 300 WEST 30 STREET (Chelsea)
- EASTLIGHT (Kips Bay)
- CENTRAL PARK TOWER (Midtown),
- ONE MANHATTAN SQUARE (Two Bridges)
- ONE HIGH LINE (West Chelsea)
