Despite 7.5% Mortgage Rates, Consumer Sentiment Remains Positive.
Although it was down from +23 last week, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties NYC Consumer Sentiment Index (below) remains well into positive territory, registering a score of +18 this week. This means that the attitude toward NYC residential real estate is 18% stronger than during the pre-pandemic period.
By borough, Manhattan’s consumer sentiment score is trending at neutral, while the attitude toward Brooklyn has been decisively positive, almost without exception, since July 2020.
Manhattan Supply
This week, as expected, supply decreased from 6,312 units to 6,208 units, on its way toward a low point next month. Why is the supply count important? Because low supply – such as is currently the case with many national markets – can assert upward pricing pressure. But, with supply at 6,208 units and a maximum weekly demand of 400 contracts, supply should not be a factor in increasing the pricing needle.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn Supply
Brooklyn supply also exhibits a bi-annual cycle, although it is not as apparent without Manhattan’s depth of historical data to illustrate the trend. This week, supply decreased from 3,087 to 3,041 units as it heads toward a trough next month. The supply-demand ratio alone should not raise prices since there are far more units available than what’s needed to satisfy a maximum weekly demand of 200 units.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Manhattan Pending Sales
Like the supply “almanac,” the historical pending sales chart provides a clear picture of what to expect, with the first of two annual peaks typically occurring in June. The metric decreased this week from 2,989 to 2,938 units and should trough in October.
Brooklyn Pending Sales
Like Manhattan, pending sales in Brooklyn recently reached the first of two annual peaks. The metric decreased from 2,059 to 2,026 units this week and should continue to decline through October.
Manhattan Consumer Sentiment
This week, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index (below) slid from +2 to -2. The score, a measurement of the attitude towards Manhattan residential real estate, has been mixed all year and, lately, has been neutral. 179 contracts were signed this week compared to 185 last week.
Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment
This week, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index (below) registered a Consumer Sentiment Score of +63, down slightly from +69 last week. This means consumer sentiment is currently 63% greater than its seasonally adjusted pre-pandemic average and has been stronger than that historical average since July 2020. 119 contracts were signed this week, versus 126 contracts last week.
New Development Insights
As reported by Marketproof, this week, 62 new development contracts were reported across 43 buildings. The following was the top-selling new developments of the week:
- TRIBECA GREEN (Battery Park City) reported 5 contracts.
- NUSUN TOWER (Flushing) reported 4 contracts.
