Predictable Rebound: NYC Real Estate's Post-Labor Day Resurgence
As autumn approaches, New York City's real estate market is undergoing its usual seasonal transitions, marked by the predictable ebb and flow in demand. Historically, the period around Labor Day experiences a noticeable dip, and this year was no exception. This week, as anticipated, we have witnessed a measured recovery post-holiday. The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties NYC Consumer Sentiment Index bounced back from -13 last week to +8 this week. This indicates that the current demand for NYC real estate is 8% above its pre-pandemic benchmark.
Yet, when we zoom in on the individual narratives of Manhattan and Brooklyn, a distinct "Tale of Two Boroughs" emerges. This week, Manhattan recorded a Consumer Sentiment Score of -18, whereas Brooklyn soared with a +65. In essence, Brooklyn's robust demand is propping up NYC's overall sentiment score.
Let’s break down the data, get a clear picture of where the market stands, and keep abreast of the subtle trends defining NYC real estate at this transitional time.
Manhattan Supply
For months, we've forecasted a dip in supply around early September. True to predictions, by September 3rd, there were 6,066 units available. This number grew to 6,371 the next week and is now at 6,637 units. We anticipate a supply peak by late October. Our forecasts aren't magic but are based on consistent past data.
Why track supply? In many places, low supply can push up prices. But in NYC, even with supply at its lowest, like a ratio of 6,066 to 143 units, there's still more than enough on the market.
Manhattan Supply | Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn Supply
Brooklyn's real estate supply also shows its seasonal rhythms. As we had projected, there was a noticeable dip in listings, bottoming out two weeks ago at 2,995 units. However, this week has seen an uptick, with available units rising to 3,148. It's interesting to note that, much like Manhattan, the supply in Brooklyn far surpasses the current demand, which stands at 120 units for this week.
It's essential to recognize these patterns, especially for those considering either diving into or exiting the Brooklyn real estate market. Keeping an eye on the supply trend will help stakeholders make informed decisions as the season progresses.
Brooklyn Supply | Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Manhattan Pending Sales
Manhattan's real estate heartbeat can be keenly observed through its pending sales, offering a forward-looking perspective. Historically, we see two distinct annual peaks, with the first typically materializing around June. This week's data indicates a minor uptick from 2,782 to 2,806 units. Based on past trends, we anticipate these numbers to decrease slightly as we transition from September into the early days of October.
Brooklyn Pending Sales
In Brooklyn, the pulse of the real estate market is evident in its pending sales trends. Similar to Manhattan, Brooklyn experiences two notable peaks annually. Recent data indicates a slight decline from 1,971 units last week to 1,957 units this week. As we've observed in the past, this metric is likely to continue its descent as we move further into the fall season.
Manhattan Consumer Sentiment
Peeling back the layers of Manhattan's real estate landscape, consumer sentiment reveals the prevailing mood. This week, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index has shown a promising upward shift, moving from -29 to -18. While we're still hovering below the average, this uptick was right in line with our predictions following the Labor Day holiday. A total of 152 contracts were inked this week, showing an increase from the 123 from the week prior.
It's crucial to frame this in perspective. Historically, this phase in the year sees a lull in demand — it's a trough in the ebb and flow of activity and supply. However, as the leaves begin their autumn shift, the market, too, will see a seasonal change.
Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment
Brooklyn's real estate sentiment paints a notably brighter picture compared to its Manhattan counterpart. This week, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index recorded an impressive score of +65, marking a significant climb from last week's +26. In real terms, 120 contracts were finalized this week, a step up from the 94 signed the previous week.
This surge in Brooklyn is not just noteworthy on its own but also plays a pivotal role in elevating the overall NYC sentiment score. When juxtaposed with Manhattan's subdued figures, Brooklyn's robust performance underscores its crucial contribution in buoying the city's collective market mood. As the seasons transition, stakeholders in Brooklyn can find encouragement in these positive trends, and it's clear that this borough is a force to be reckoned with in the NYC real estate scene.
New Development Insights
As reported by Marketproof, this week, 58 new development contracts were reported across 40 buildings. The following buildings were the top-selling new developments of the week:
- TRIBECA GREEN (Battery Park City)
- NOVA (Long Island City)
Both reported 4 contracts.
