For the past 3 weeks, demand for NYC residential real estate has finally climbed above its pre-pandemic average* after many months spent below. It is difficult to determine whether this is seasonally expected strength or if demand is more robust than normal.
But, for now, it’s exciting to see that demand for NYC is strong, regardless of the reason.
Other metrics, such as supply and pending sales, look healthy as well in that they’re right on pace with seasonal trends.
* the weekly average of signed contracts during the period January 5, 2015 to March 1, 2020
Manhattan Supply
As the curve’s historical shape, i.e., the bi-annual peak/trough cycle, clearly illustrates, supply is crawling out of its winter hibernation towards the spring peak. The metric was up again this week to 6,173 units, including the 309 new listings that were posted.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn Supply
Without Manhattan’s depth of historical data to clearly illustrate the trend, it still exhibits a similar bi-annual supply cycle. Supply was up this week to 2,964 total and 152 new units, moving off the winter low and on its way to the spring peak.
Manhattan Pending Sales
For weeks, as the metric decelerated, we said that it would soon begin to reverse course since history suggests that the lowest level is reached during February. That happened two weeks ago, with pending sales increasing from 2,126 to 2,195 and now to 2,240 units. Like supply, we want to point out the bi-annual cycle for those pre-pandemic years, which forecasts the year’s first peak in June.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn Pending Sales
This week’s news is the same as we witnessed in Manhattan where, right on cue, the metric reached its seasonal February trough and has reversed direction, increasing from 1,142 to 1,465 to 1,495 units. We were able to “predict” that from the cyclical nature of pending sales and can, therefore, also predict that the first of two peaks this year should occur in June.
Chart courtesy of UrbanDigs
Manhattan Contracts Signed
Demand this week, as measured by 208 contracts, was on par with its historical average of 204 contracts.
Brooklyn Contracts Signed
It appears that Brooklyn is peaking for the 6th consecutive time since the pandemic. After briefly touching in mid-January the pre-pandemic average, which has become the metric’s support level for the past 2 years, signed contracts reached 115 this week compared to the historical average of 77.
New Development Insights
As reported by Marketproof, this week, 73 new development contracts were reported across 45 buildings. The following were the top-selling new developments of the week:
- NUSUN TOWER (Flushing Queens)
- H7 CONDOMINIUM (Midwood)
