Spring Comes Early: Manhattan Contract Velocity at Levels Last Seen in June 2023
The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties NYC Consumer Sentiment Index continued to increase from +16 to +26 last week, reflecting a 26% increase in current consumer sentiment compared to the pre-pandemic average (from January 5, 2015, to February 29, 2020).
Manhattan posted two consistent and strong weeks of contract activity, with 212 contracts signed last week and 213 signed this week. This marks the first occurrence of two back-to-back weeks of over 200 contracts signed since June 2023. Compared to the same two weeks last year, there has been a 20% increase in signed contracts and an 11% decrease in new listings entering the market.
Similarly, over the past fortnight, Brooklyn has experienced a 20% uptick in signed contracts compared to the same period last year, while new listings decreased by 5%.
Although buyers gained some leverage in January, according to the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Leverage Index, that will likely prove short-lived and diminish quickly, with leverage shifting towards sellers as demand continues to rise amidst lower supply. As a result, the market will likely become more competitive, eroding the negotiating power buyers have enjoyed over the past eighteen months.
Manhattan Supply
As we would expect from analyzing the repetitive pattern of the chart below, supply should grow for the next few months as we near the spring listing season. This week, 301 new listings came to market, the most in a week since the fall, but given the elevated demand, supply surprisingly decreased by 1% to 5,811 units for sale in Manhattan.
Brooklyn Supply
As we would expect from analyzing the repetitive pattern of the chart below, supply should grow for the next few months as we near the spring listing season. This week, 167 new listings came to market, but given the consistently strong demand, supply surprisingly decreased by 3.5% to 2,798 units for sale in Brooklyn.
Manhattan Pending Sales
Pending sales stayed essentially flat this week at 2,407 units.
Brooklyn Pending Sales
Pending sales surprisingly declined by 6.5% to 1,607 units this week.
Manhattan Consumer Sentiment
This week, Manhattan’s score on the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index increased from +3% to +8%, as 213 contracts were signed, one more than last week. This marks the first time since June 2023 that there were two subsequent weeks with more than 200 contracts signed in Manhattan.
Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment
This week, Brooklyn’s score on the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index increased from +55% to +78%, as 133 contracts were signed this week versus 109 last week.
New Development Insights
Marketproof reported that 52 new development contracts were signed in 40 buildings this week. The following buildings were the top-selling new developments of the week:
- 11 Hoyt St (Downtown Brooklyn) reported 5 contracts
- 450 Washington (Tribeca) reported 3 contracts.
