A Likely Case of Previous Underreporting Boosts This Week’s Numbers
In New York City real estate this week, our Elegran | Forbes Global Properties NYC Consumer Sentiment Index jumped from -4 to +24. However, the boost may not be all it seems. Several new development projects have disclosed a substantial number of signed contracts this week, an indication that past sales figures may have been underreported. If our guess is right, this might explain why consumer sentiment has been so low for new developments this fall. However, a handful of previously unreported contracts is not nearly enough to right the ship. Overall, this fall season, new developments still struggled, and resale homes are selling better than before.
Manhattan Supply
Manhattan's real estate supply hit its second peak of the year at October's end and is expected to decline for the rest of the year. While many places across the country face inventory shortages, causing price spikes, New York City has more homes for sale than there are buyers. This week, the surplus is evident with 7,237 homes on the market, but only 185 contracts closed.
Manhattan Supply | Data courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn Supply
In Brooklyn, the property supply surprisingly increased this week, though it's anticipated to resume its seasonal decline soon. Currently, there are 3,339 homes on the market, which far exceeds the demand reflected by this week's 127 closed contracts. This suggests that similar to Manhattan, Brooklyn has a significant surplus of homes for sale, with available units outnumbering those that are in demand.
Brooklyn Supply | Data courtesy of UrbanDigs
Manhattan Pending Sales
There were 2,496 pending sales this week, and although the metric has been steady for the past few weeks, it should soon begin to decline and continue to do so through the Winter season.
Brooklyn Pending Sales
Brooklyn's pending sales mirror the trend seen in Manhattan. With that understanding, we can predict that pending sales, which have been steady for the past few weeks, are predicted to start falling as we enter the colder months. This week, there were 1,859 pending sales.
Manhattan Consumer Sentiment
This week, Manhattan's Consumer Sentiment saw a positive shift, with the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Index climbing from -23 to +8. This rise suggests a growing optimism among consumers, which is reflected in the increase in signed contracts—from 150 last week to 185 this week. The index shows that Manhattan's real estate confidence has been up and down, with about half the year above its benchmark.
Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment
This week, Brooklyn’s score on the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index grew from +47 to +72. Since July 2020, sentiment has consistently been strong, reflecting sustained buyer optimism in Brooklyn's real estate market. This week's contract signings also grew slightly, with 127 contracts signed compared to 123 the previous week, reinforcing the positive sentiment trend.
New Development Insights
Marketproof reported that 82 new development contracts were signed in 42 buildings this week. The following buildings were the top-selling new developments of the week:
- 450 WASHINGTON (Tribeca) reported 12 contracts (most likely including previously unreported contracts)
- TRIBECA GREEN (Battery Park City) reported 9 contracts (most likely including previously unreported contracts)
